Earth observation is most commercially valuable when it becomes part of a customer’s recurring decision process rather than a one-off source of imagery.

That is what EarthDaily Analytics has achieved by providing Aon’s catastrophe-modelling team, Impact Forecasting with its wildfire fuel data to support the development of a Canadian wildfire catastrophe model.

The announcement says the model is intended to help insurers assess wildfire risk across their portfolios including probable maximum loss and the capital and reinsurance required to withstand severe fire years. EarthDaily’s role is to supply model-ready information on forest composition including its Percent Conifer Basal Area layer, which describes the share of forest basal area (the total cross-sectional surface area of all tree trunks in a given area, measured at chest height) made up of coniferous trees.

From an EO product to a commercial workflow

For the EO sector, the interesting point is not simply that satellite-derived information is being used in insurance. The more significant development is that a specialist data layer is being incorporated into a catastrophe-modelling workflow that can inform underwriting, accumulation management, capital planning and reinsurance decisions.

Customers in insurance and risk markets rarely need imagery for its own sake: they need trusted, consistent inputs that fit established models, can be validated against past events and can be refreshed at the cadence their decisions demand. Providers that can combine observation, analytics, documentation and integration support are better placed to secure recurring revenue than those selling isolated scenes or dashboards.

Wildfire needs more than a satellite layer

Fuel is one of several variables behind wildfire loss. Topography, weather, ignition patterns, suppression, the location and value of exposed assets, policy conditions and the model’s assumptions also shape an insurer’s outcome. Satellite-derived forest information can strengthen that chain, but it does not remove the need for careful validation and transparent treatment of uncertainty.

EarthDaily says its data improved model accuracy during Impact Forecasting’s evaluation against several recent wildfires. This is a supplier announcement, however, and the commercial terms, full validation results and the model’s eventual release timetable have not been disclosed. That caveat is important: it is an encouraging market signal, not proof that any one EO layer can determine wildfire risk on its own.

A lesson for BARSC members

The opportunity for EO businesses lies in designing products around the decisions customers must make. In insurance, that means model-ready data, documented provenance, measurable performance, interoperability and support for validation. The same lesson travels to infrastructure, agriculture, maritime operations and public resilience: EO gains commercial traction when it is embedded in a workflow with a clear owner, a repeatable budget and a measurable consequence.

EarthDaily’s announcement offers a useful case study of that transition. The satellite data is not the end product, it is an input to a decision system where the commercial value is created.